MyDD :: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA

Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA

by gobacktotexas, Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:31:47 AM EST

Obama appears to have the big MO on his side at this point, with dramatic leaps in all state polls. The latest is Georgia.

Q.2. If you are voting in the Democratic primary or have voted in early voting, which candidate do you prefer?

Obama
52.0

Clinton
36.0

Obama is dramatically closing the gap in Massachussets, California, and even New York, and now he has done more than close the gap in Georgia. It's starting to look like February 5 is going to be a very big day for Barack Obama.

Poll

Votes: 16
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Permalink :: 24 Comments :: Post a Comment

Lets not go overboard (none / 0)

A big day for Obama would be keeping the delegate count close, since the other states that vote the rest of February are quite favorable to him.

If he keeps California close and wins 7-10 states, he should be in solid shape. And at that point, who the hell knows WHAT will happen. I sure don't.

by HSTruman on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:34:21 AM EST

Re: Lets not go overboard (none / 0)

I agree with you , he just needs to keep gt close. Remember Virginia and Louisiana will be followind states and are very favorable to Obama. I will be in Georgia working for the Camapaign and o boy just like in SC we won't leave any door unknock. We are going to try to run the score and thus gets more delegates

"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod

by Jr1886 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:38:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA (none / 0)

If Obama can't win in Georgia then he has a problem.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:35:47 AM EST

LOL! the same IA has Hillary up big in Ten (none / 0)

nice try though!

Tenn:

Clinton 59
Obama 26

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/docs/InsiderAdvantage_MajorityOpinionT NDEMpoll.html

by yellowdem1129 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:36:14 AM EST

Re: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA (none / 0)

I hate polls.

However, I do think Obama will win GA.

by lonnette33 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:36:36 AM EST

Re: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA (none / 0)

Also I believe GA has 27% AA.

by lonnette33 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:37:13 AM EST

Re: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA (none / 0)

Almost 50% of the Democratic primary voters are AA in Georgia.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:47:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Surely you are not suggesting (none / 0)

That African Americans are going to vote for Obama because he was black. Because that will be ample proof that you are a hurtful racist.

Oh wait a minute. You are not subject to Clinton Rules. My bad.

Can someone tell me what the distinction is between discussing the AA vote before an election and speculating it will favor one candidate over the other and discussing it after and suggesting it was decisive? Who exactly is injecting race into the campaign here?

Hypocrisy thy name is legion.

PollKatz: Bush Approval in 15 polls

by Bruce Webb on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:54:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Surely you are not suggesting (none / 0)

Note away about demographic voting patterns, just don't diminish a victory because any one voting block breaks for a particular candidate. Neither Hillary nor her female supporters are "sexist" because women are her best demographic group. The same goes for Obama.

by HSTruman on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 02:49:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Surely you are not suggesting (none / 0)

I was a comment to a reference made by the previous poster.

But, since you brought it up, yes, no one doubts there are black people who support Obama because he is black and that there are women who support Clinton because she is a woman. Does that make me a racists? How about a sexists?

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:12:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA (none / 0)

Interesting. I didn't know that.

by lonnette33 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In both polls by IA in GA and Tenn (none / 0)

Hillary wins a majority of the white vote.

This is evidence that Hillary is poised to win big on Super Tues.

But that big bad msm is always lurking.

by yellowdem1129 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:37:49 AM EST

You keep extrapolating nationally (none / 0)

from Southern Senior whites.

(ie. Clinton's margin really only comes from a huge break from seniors, not young people.)

I think you are making a mistake with that.

k/o: politics and local blogs

by kid oakland on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:18:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You keep extrapolating nationally (none / 0)

He has no sense of America that's why he's making these ridiculous extrapolations. I wonder if he ever take a statistic class?

"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod

by Jr1886 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:24:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You keep extrapolating nationally (none / 0)

Jr I've taken a ton of statistics classes admittedly a fairly long time ago and I've seen you make some fairly wonderful statistical reaches over the past few weeks. Or do you call yourself an objective analyst when it comes to Obama.

by ottovbvs on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:36:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You keep extrapolating nationally (none / 0)

Remember that jr had oodles of "it is definitely over," "Clinton has no chance," "those who think Clinton has any chance at all are laughable" posts that proved to be hilariously non-prescient.

by georgep on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:46:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You keep extrapolating nationally (none / 0)

Georgepep you have no credibility at all. The day of the Iowa caucus, Hillary looking good, poised to win with a front page nod. You are still on steroid

"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod

by Jr1886 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:54:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You keep extrapolating nationally (none / 0)

Laughable. There was no "Hillary poised to win" frontpager that day. A shameless lie. You have positively zero credibility, and you obviously play fast and loose with the truth.

I did give a prediction in the Iowa prediction thread that I thought Clinton would win it by 1%, but that it would not at all surprise me if she lost instead. Go look it up. All verifiable. As are your many, MANY smarmy diaries and posts that Clinton is absolutely finished and those who think she has even the ghost of a chance are total idiots.

by georgep on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:05:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA (2.00 / 1)

By the way new PPP polling has georgia at

Obama 51

Clinton 41

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_Georgia_Release_013108.pdf

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 11:59:32 AM EST

Re: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA (none / 0)

AA voters are about 30% of electorate in GA so if he garners his 80% this has to be his best chance outside of IL. Someone above mentions they are 50% of primary voters. I don't know the provenance of that number, I'd be surprised if it was statewide. All said If he can't win here. The Edwards departure has reshuffled the pack and polls are going to be all over the place for the next few days. Essentially I think we are going into the big T somewhat blind. The 64,000 dollar question in all this is, does Obama break out of a range 20-35% of white vote, I think the die is pretty well cast with AA voters (80%) and Hispanics(30%). At the end of the day this is where most of the action is. If he does he stands a good chance of some upsets if he doesn't he won't. Personally I'm sceptical both because of my prediliction for Clinton but more because of what I've seen so far. And on CA, while it's true they are more relaxed about racial issues there is also a very strongly motivated female bloc.

by ottovbvs on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:30:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA (none / 0)

Georgia is almost a mirror of South Carolina. An Obama lead in Georgia is hardly surprising. What is telling, however, is Clinton's continued strength in Tennessee, as shown with numbers from the same polling firm, which show Clinton with a huge advantage in Tennessee. Tennessee was a state Obama was said to be competetive in, but he looks very weak there.

by georgep on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:23:05 PM EST

Re: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA (none / 0)

I think Feb. 5 is going to be a clusterfuck of monumental proportions. The map, as it supposedly stands now, favors Clinton over Obama. But I think the delegate count will be very close in the end perhaps barely favoring Hillary. I'm not sure what happens after that. The late-primary states (PA, TX, who am I missing?) also seem to favor Hillary at the moment, but if she can't deliver a knock-out blow in Feb 5, things could really turn.

The John Edwards' endorsement will also mean a lot, I imagine he's saving it for Sunday-Monday to have maximum impact on Feb 5. A war of attrition favors Obama, I think. Remember Hillary was running in excess of 25 points ahead of Obama just a few months ago. As her aura of inevitability fades, I think Obama's fortunes rise.

We'll see.

by the mollusk on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 12:50:34 PM EST

Re: Poll: Obama 52, Clinton 36 in GA (none / 0)

i would appreciate the link; but, this is no surprise and the story should be the same in AL, as the black vote account in 50%+, and they are voting 80% for him; so, nothing new.

by American1989 on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:07:19 PM EST

I wouldn't count on trend lines (none / 0)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104044/Gallup -Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

Clinton was up 20 points in Gallup just ten days ago but only up 3 point two weeks before that. If the Florida result really has no impact on perceptions in the other big states and Edwards voters break decisively for Obama then perhaps Obama's fortunes rise.

But at this point I don't see any single or for that matter group of metrics that would lead anyone to conclude this was in the bag for either candidate.

PollKatz: Bush Approval in 15 polls

by Bruce Webb on Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 01:09:18 PM EST

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